The Middle Kingdom – The Scholar's Stage

The Eight Tribes of Trump and China

31 March, 2025Bargaining and Balancing, Entangling Alliances, The Middle Kingdom, The Presidency

LAST OCTOBER I published a short breakdown of four geopolitical ‘schools’ that might shape China strategy under Trump. That piece was a pre-election preview of a much larger report I was writing for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. I published the preview as security: Trump might not win. If so I had better publish something before election day while interest in Trumpworld was guaranteed.

Trump won. Interest in GOP debates did not abate. I continued to work on the report. As of this week the full thing is out. You can read it, in all its twenty-page glory, over at the FPRI website. What follows are some of its key points:

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Observations From India

05 January, 2025Bharat, Electoral Intrigues, Futuristics, Narrative, Political Theory, Religion, The Middle Kingdom, Things I Do Other Than Blogging

In November 2024, I traveled to India as part of a delegation hosted by the India Foundation. The foundation is a part of the new nationalist establishment steering Indian society. As they see things, India’s relationship with America has been mediated by hostile parties for too long. On the Indian side you have Congress-sympathizing functionaries; on the American side, a set of intellectuals and diplomats who can neither speak for nor to the American right. Direct links between Indian and American nationalists are needed.

So I was invited India.

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Republican Debates on China: A Political Compass

31 October, 2024Bargaining and Balancing, Diplomacy, Dogs of War, Entangling Alliances, The Middle Kingdom, The Presidency, Uncategorized

MANY HAVE TRIED to pin Trump to Heritage’s “Project 2025.” The Trump campaign has not only refused to endorse Project 2025—they have refused to endorse any detailed policy plan whatsoever. Trump prefers to keep his options open.

One unanticipated benefit of this approach is that Republicans have spent much of the last year engaged in intensive but open debates over policy. Ambitious politicians, congressional offices, and think tanks have laid out their preferred plans on almost every issue of importance. These plans often differ from each other in striking ways. Absent endorsement from Trump or his campaign, no one quite knows which of these policy packages will eventually be adopted as the Republican standard. The Republicans involved have thus been free to debate the merits and costs of each.

Take China policy.

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Dionysus Against the Daoists

29 September, 2024History, Narrative, Nature Red in Tooth and Claw, Religion, Romans and Grecians, The Middle Kingdom

IN WESTERN PHILOSOPHY AND AESTHETICS a contrast is sometimes made between the Dionysian and the Apollonian. Made famous by Nietzsche, this schema was first used to describe the thought and art of Ancient Greece. On the Apollonian end we have all that is rational, intentional, structured, abstract, or well ordered; on the Dionysian side we find all that is passionate, instinctual, chaotic, sensual or protean. The Apollonian strain of western culture is associated with daylight, law, mathematics, sculpture, discipline, and the city; the Dionysian strain is associated with nightfall, violence, poetry, music, drunkenness, and nature. The Apollonian element is stereotypically male; the Dionysian element is stereotypically female. The Apollonian ideal is realized by the solitary philosopher solemn in thought. The model Dionysian is an ecstatic madman frenzied in a crowd.

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Five Fundamentals of Chinese Grand Strategy

17 August, 2024Geopolitics, The Middle Kingdom

Last month Civic Future invited me to join a panel at their annual policy forum. The topic: what the United Kingdom should do about China. As I am neither a British citizen nor an expert in British affairs, I thought it impolitic to lecture my hosts on how they should be governing their own country. Instead I focused my remarks on the communist government in Beijing. My aim was to lay out several elements of Chinese foreign policy that must be taken into account by statesmen from any Western country.

It will be difficult to guide any nation through the storms of the next two decades; it will be harder still if our leaders chart their course without reference to the fundamental ways, means, and ends of Chinese strategy. These ways, means, and ends are discernible. When you clear out the deadwood and the underbrush you will find that the many branches of Chinese foreign policy spring from five trunks, each vital and deep-rooted.

These can be stated as follows:

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More on Xi Jinping’s Industrial Drive + London Meet Up

27 June, 2024Futuristics, Site Announcements, The Middle Kingdom, Things I Do Other Than Blogging

A few items of interest to my readers:

First, at the end of last month I appeared on the German Marshall Fund’s China Global podcast to discuss the CPC’s current techno-industrial drive. You can listen to the full thing on Simplecast, Apple Podcast, or in the embed below:

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Xi Jinping’s Plan to Save China Through Science

08 May, 2024Complex Systems, Dogs of War, Futuristics, The Middle Kingdom, Wealth

Does China have a plan to save its wobbly economy?

Last week in Foreign Policy I argued that it does—but not the sort of plan most Western economists are comfortable with. Western analysts blame slowing growth on a variety of factors: a communist bureaucracy paralyzed by purges and confused by an unfavorable economic environment, ‘animal spirits’ that never recovered after being caged by zero-COVID, a property bubble too large to pop, and most importantly of all, policies that favor state investment in a country where savings rates are too high and consumption rates too low. The question was posed again and time again: how will the PRC surmount these problems?

Beijing answered this question conclusively during the Two Sessions held this March. Li Qiang’s Government Work Report makes clear the government’s priorities for the economy—and everything else. As I summarize in Foreign Policy:

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American Nightmares: Wang Huning and Alexis de Tocqueville’s Dark Visions of the Future

28 March, 2024Culture, Futuristics, History, On Liberty, Political Theory, Possessions For All Time, The Middle Kingdom

There is a passage in Democracy in America that has appeared in many of my essays.” In the United States,” Tocqueville reports, “there is nothing the human will despairs of attaining through the free action of the combined power of individuals.” Tocqueville contrasts his vision of the American yeoman with the stereotypical “inhabitant of some European nations,” who “sees himself as a kind of settler, indifferent to the fate of the place he inhabits… enjoying what he has as a tenant, without any feeling of ownership or thought of possible improvement.”

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Wang Huning and the Eternal Return to 1975

23 November, 2023Complex Systems, Futuristics, The Middle Kingdom

A few years back Ross Douthat published an interesting book titled The Decadent Society: How We Became Victims of Our Own Success. The thesis of Douthat’s book is simple: American society is stagnant. Our blockbusters and our books are remakes from the ’80s; our political coalitions and political programs all date back to the 1970s; even the technological progress we have seen over the last three decades pales in comparison to the revolutions that occurred in the decades before. We may celebrate “change agents” but we no longer have any. America is stuck in what Douthat cleverly labels an “eternal recursion to 1975.”

My essay “On Life in the Shadow of the Boomers” was written in response to The Decadent Society. It was mostly focused on the cultural angle of Douthat’s thesis. Douthat’s claims of technology are downstream the arguments of the Thielites. I assessed their arguments in the essay “Has Technological Progress Stalled?” Between these two pieces you see my general take on Douthat’s thesis: his assessment of American cultural and political stasis is broadly correct, but he overstates how unusual stasis is in American history. Political and cultural transformation occurs via a sort of punctuated equilibrium (see also my essay “Culture Wars are Long Wars”) and we just happen to be living at the tail end of an equilibrium phase.

On the other hand, Douthat understates the true scope of technological stagnation. Nothing the internet has delivered remotely compares with the transformation of human civilization that occurred during the second industrial revolution. In 1975 technological change was the most important facet of American life. It is no longer.

Were Wang Huning to read Douthat’s book, I suspect he might agree with me.

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Watch Xi Jinping Slowly Strangle the Dengist Economic Paradigm

11 March, 2023History, Monied Interests, Political Theory, The Middle Kingdom

Xi Jinping’s decision to openly label the United States the source of China’s ills rolled through the newsletters, wire services, and commentators on China this week. Much has been written about this already; I have nothing to add. Here I call attention to something else that occurred at the National People’s Congress, an incident whose significance is perhaps not properly appreciated. Here is Nikkei’s description of the incident in question: