Complex Systems – The Scholar's Stage

Has Technological Progress Stalled?

02 August, 2022Books and Literature, Complex Systems, Futuristics, History, Wealth

Or Comments on the Thiel Thesis, Part I

Last week Mary Harrington published a long interview with Peter Thiel in the online magazine Unherd. Much of her article centers on Thiel’s conviction that meaningful technological progress stopped a good half century ago. This view is not unique to Thiel. In many ways it is the starting point for the entire “Progress Studies” movement. The Thielites and the Progress Studies folk take this shared premise to different end points, but both deem scientific inertia as the defining feature of the 21^st century. Both also see technological and material stagnation as the root source of myriad ills tearing at America’s social fabric.

Here is Thiel’s description of the problem, as written up by Harrington:

52 Comments

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations: A Reader Course

13 January, 2022Arabia, Bactria, Bharat, Books and Literature, Complex Systems, Culture, Diplomacy, Dogs of War, Europa Regina, History, Narrative, Near East, On Humanity, Political Theory, Romans and Grecians, Small and Simple Things, Southeast Asia, Steppe and Sown, The Middle Kingdom, Wealth

A Scholar’s Stage forum member reports that he and a friend recently finished reading John Darwin’s After Tamerlane. Enraptured by Darwin’s account of flourish and fall, they ask what else they might read to understand the rise and decline of peoples and powers over the course of human history.

In my mind there are four central parts to this tale:

25 Comments

Needed: Deep State Traffic Cops

02 December, 2021Complex Systems, Diplomacy, The Presidency

The American national security complex has a long list of 21st century defeats to its name. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last few months trying to understand some of these failures. But if any meaningful reform is to occur and competence is to be restored too high office, it is just as important to identify and understand successes. Otherwise, there are no targets to reform the system towards.

4 Comments

Xi Jinping’s War on Spontaneous Order

28 September, 2021Complex Systems, Culture, Monied Interests, Political Theory, Tyranny

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal published a letter I wrote to their editor in response to Kevin Rudd’s exposition on Xi Jinping’s “Common Prosperity” campaign:

35 Comments

Everything I Got Wrong in 2020

06 January, 2021Cognition, Complex Systems, Domestic Politics, Epidemiology, Nature Red in Tooth and Claw, The Middle Kingdom

What did I get wrong in 2020? What did I change my mind about? As I have argued that the mark of a good mind is a willingness to admit mistakes and to come to terms with why one might have made them, I am now forced into the uncomfortable position of trying to live […]

10 Comments

Why I am Bearish on Substack

22 November, 2020Community, Complex Systems

The big trend in writing and journalism in the year 2020—other than the New York Times continued conquest of everything in print—is the flowering of the Substackerati.[1] Hardly a day goes by without some famous figure announcing their new hope you will become a new subscriber to a new newsletter they are writing on this […]

16 Comments

Bootlicking in Beijing

07 December, 2018Complex Systems, The Middle Kingdom

Image Source “You’re ten years younger than I am, Dacha, and so the Master means more to you. We of the old guard, we were trained to depend upon ourselves, we had no use for masters, except those anointed by trust. But to the snot-nose brats of the next generation, intoxicated by the loudspeakers, no […]

8 Comments

Beware the Alcibiades Point

14 December, 2016Complex Systems, History, Romans and Grecians

A supposed bust of Alcibiades. Image source. I spent the later part of my teenage years in the forbidding climes of southeastern Minnesota. In those days I’d often hear a joke that I sometimes still repeat: “In Minnesota we have four seasons: near-winter, winter, still-winter,… and road construction.” Minnesota’s northern reaches are pockmarked with lakes […]

1 Comment

China Was Never an Empire of the Mind

31 July, 2016Complex Systems, Dogs of War, Europa Regina, History, Narrative, Near East, Small and Simple Things, The Middle Kingdom

“Let us go forward as with other matters and other measures similar in aim and effect – let us go forward in malice to none and good will to all. Such plans offer far better prizes than taking away other people’s provinces or lands or grinding them down in exploitation. The empires of the future […]

13 Comments

Darwin and War in Ancient China, Sengoku Japan, and Early Modern Europe

08 November, 2015Complex Systems, Dogs of War, Europa Regina, Geopolitics, History, Japan, Political Theory, The Middle Kingdom

What does Darwin have to do with terracotta warriors, samurai armies, or Napoleon’s conquests? Quite a lot. Or at least this is what I argue in a paper I finished back in April. I anticipated refining it with extra research in the months since then. This hope was not realized. Other projects have consumed my […]

14 Comments

Category Archives: Complex Systems