The Future of the Fertile Crescent: Thoughts from Nibras Kazimi

Yesterday I was delighted to discover that Nibras Kazimi has started blogging in English again. Kazimi has played the part of both activist and analyst over the last decade, working out of Washington DC or Iraq as the occasion required. At the height of the old strategy blogosphere he was running one of the sharpest blogs on […]

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The Next 40 Years in Twelve Hundred Words

Info-graphic taken from Peter Turchin, “The Double-Helix of Inequality and Well-Being,” Social Evolution Forum (8 February 2013) Recently in a discussion at a different venue I wrote the following: I am extremely pessimistic about the near term (2015-2035) future of both of the countries I care most about and follow most closely, but very optimistic […]

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What Books Do We Need to Rewrite All of Human History?

  Image source. The Long Now Foundation, a society devoted to human flourishing on a millennial timescale,  has started a project named the “Manual for Civilization.” The idea behind the Manual is not unlike that of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, a seed bank built deep beneath the ice of a remote Norwegian island that […]

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Visions of the Coming Future — John Robb’s New Project

As Lexington Green says, if you are not reading John Robb‘s new website, then you should be.Mr. Robb has a unique biography. Titles like USAFA cadet, SERE school grad, Yalie, astronautical engineer, counter-terrorism operator, military theorist, tech analyst, software executive, and best selling author have been given to Mr. Robb at one point or another. […]

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The Limits of Expertise

  Scott Reinhard, Expert Button (February 2010). Print at Scott Reinhard Co. Image source.   Last month Tom Nichols, professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College  and a well regarded authority on Russian foreign policy and American nuclear strategy, published a thought-provoking essay on his blog titled “The Death of Expertise:” […]

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Notes From All Over (26/11/13): Germs, Governments. and Gettysburg

A collection of articles, essays, and blog post of merit. This is the first “Notes From All Over” I have written this month, so this list is a long one. TOP BILLING When We Lose Antibiotics, Here’s Everything Else We’ll Lose TooMaryn McKenna. Wired. 20 November 2013. If we really lost antibiotics to advancing drug resistance […]

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America 3.0

It is unusual for me to read a book aimed at popular conservative audiences.  I am something of a disaffected conservative. Crony capitalism and government overreach have proved to be bipartisan endeavors, and I have long lost faith that the Republican party can ever be more than an organ of America’s governing elite. [1] Outside […]

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Notes From All Over 2/11/2010

A collection of articles, essays, and blog post of merit – abridged addition this time around. DEMOGRAPHICS The Wheel of History Turns to The Gods Razib Khan. Gene Expression. 10 October 2010. An extremely important survey of global demographic trends over the next forty years.The post focuses on the difference between the birth rates of […]

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Afghansistan 2050: Futures That Will Not Be

The following is my contribution to the Afghanistan 2050 Roundtable hosted by the proprietors of ChicagoBoyz. The opening post of the roundtable – which explains its purpose and methods – can be found here. My piece is cross-posted at ChicagoBoyz with the rest of the submissions. The great challenge with interpreting the future is that […]

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