There is a school of international relations theory that advocates judging the relations of states absent speculation on the intentions and plans of its statesmen. As leaders have an incentive to lie and their intentions can never really be proved one way or another, it is best for the analyst to refrain from mind-reading altogether. […]
Category Archives: Bargaining and Balancing
China’s Vision of Victory?
Over at Foreign Policy I have a new column out reviewing Jonathan Ward’s China’s Vision of Victory. The column is not actually new; it has been on the news-stands for several weeks now in Foreign Policy‘s print edition. But it only went online two days ago. I use the review as a chance to open […]
Why Taiwanese Leaders Put Political Symbolism Above Military Power
image Source How many people ruin themselves by laying out money on trinkets of frivolous utility? What pleases these lovers of toys is not so much the utility, as the aptness of the machines which are fitted to promote it. All their pockets are stuffed with little conveniencies. They contrive new pockets, unknown in the […]
A Brief Model of Extremist Politics
Though strange to us it seemd At first, that Angel should with Angel warr, And in fierce hosting meet, who wont to meet So oft in Festivals of joy and love Unanimous, as sons of one great Sire Hymning th’ Eternal Father: but the shout Of Battel now began, and rushing sound Of onset ended […]
Give No Heed to the Walking Dead
Image source “Closed politics cannot be a permanent feature of Chinese society…. We can cooperate with the emerging China of today, even as we work for the democratic China of tomorrow.” —Robert Zoellick,Deputy Secretary of State [2005]. “Since the Vietnam war, the U.S. has more often chosen the strategy of ‘winning without a war.’ This […]
Are We Ready For What Comes Next?
“We must maintain a holistic view of national security. We take the people’s security as our ultimate goal, political security as our fundamental task, and economic security as our foundation.” —Secretary General Xi Jinping, April 2014. Are we ready for what comes next? The news this week is that the United States of America has […]
Taking Cross Cultural Psychology Seriously
Image Source. Note that this image is not from the pre-print. I just found it through googling. In that way, an explanation would be forthcoming for the future of certain nations which appear to be drawn by an unknown force towards a goal which they are unaware. –Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (1835) Cross-cultural psychology […]
Khashoggi’s Death is the Crisis We Have Been Waiting For
“Alas, I am a wretch! Because of the terrors I have sufferedI bring pleasure to my enemies and toil to my friends.” —Theogenis of Megara 隔岸觀火 —《三十六計》 The President’s statement on U.S.-Saudi relations has caused understandable upset and predictable uproar. Most of these reactions are explicitly framed in terms of values. They need not be. […]
Costly Signaling in the South China Sea
This will be my final post in the “China Does Not Want Your Rules Based Order” series. You can read the original post that started the conversation here and the first follow up discussion here. In this post I will focus on a comment left back on the original essay by Andrew Chubb. Chubb is […]
Arms and Influence… and China
Last week’s post “China Does Not Want Your Rules Based Order” created a stir. Many who read it were inspired to write up their own view in response; some of these have been posted in the comments thread to the original post, others on Twitter, and yet others have been sent to me in more […]